A Guide to Pilot Shortage

 

 Empty Cockpits are Gathering Dust

                                                                                                                          - Braydon King     

        

                                       (Data courtesy Boeing Commercial Outlook, 2019-2038)                                        

An Introduction to Pilot Shortage

Pilot shortage is not a problem that's just affecting the nation, but instead the world. The commercial aviation industry and military aviation industry are suffering from this plague. The demand for pilots grows while the number of pilots in-service fall. According to the (Federal Aviation Administration, 2019), the number of active pilots has decreased by 30% since 1987. You might be asking yourself, why it's a problem for you. If there aren't enough pilots worldwide then how will you make your urgent flight from Seattle to Miami? How about New York to London? Are they going to send your mail by boat? No more one-day shipping from Amazon. This is everybody's problem, including the economy. 

National Security through Aviation

(Nolan J. Sweeney, "Predicting Active Duty Air Force Pilot Attrition," RAND, 2015.)

Notes: The left vertical axis with the corresponding red line depicts pilots hired by the seven major airlines (Alaska, American, Delta, FedEx, Southwest, United, and UPS). The right vertical axis with the corresponding blue line shows Air Force pilots leaving the service.

Military aviation plays a huge role in our nation's defense. If we don't have pilots to protect the skies, we might forfeit freedom. In 2023 stand-off munitions fired from aircraft are the number one way to defend from an adversary. Being in the Air Force myself, the capabilities our military aircraft has rivals that of any other superpower. But why are there a low number of pilots in the first place? The job of a military pilot is extremely demanding. Pilots work long hours and with recent Air Force staff cuts they have to pick up even more responsibilities. This causes problems with pilot "retention" rates. If the Air Force can't keep pilots why not just hire more? Well, that's easier said than done. Training new pilots is exponentially more expensive than retaining old ones. It takes millions of dollars to train a new fighter pilot and thousands of hours of work. According to the (Air Force Times, 2017), It can cost up to 11.2 million dollars for training. Not to mention the strict requirements to become a pilot in the Air Force.

Airline Shortages  

This graph shows the increasing passenger demand (orange) vs the decreasing number of pilots in rotation (blue). 

(Aerospace Forecast Report 2016-2036)

Similarly, to military aviation, airline pilots' quality of life is not the greatest. When an airline is short on pilots, they require other pilots to pick up the workload. This means less time with family, fewer days off, and increased work-related stress. This means more flights will be delayed and canceled. Airlines have increased hiring efforts, but it could take years to see the benefits.

Another issue is the age range. When you take a flight somewhere how often is your pilot young? Most airline pilots are older and with a mandatory retirement age of 65, more pilots are leaving than joining. (Pilot Insitute, 2022) stated finding people who can afford training and meet all requirements is difficult. 

Training Aviators

 

The current training requirements for an airline pilot are ridiculously expensive. People interested in the career field are looking at spending over 100,000 dollars and over 1500 hours of flight time to complete all requirements. Not a lot of people can afford something that expensive. This means fewer people that can enter the career field. You could lower the flight time needed to get your Airline Transport license (ATP), but that comes with the cost of safety. I wouldn't want my pilot to be minimally trained.           

What Can We Fix?

Were in luck! Airlines have started to loan money to pilots in training so they can pay for their school. This is great for future pilots who can't afford flight training! It does come with a commitment of service to the airline that gave you money. Airlines are also trying to reduce the amount of work pilots have to do. They are going to start optimizing their operations for maximum efficiency. In the military aviation industry, the Air Force is trying to open up jobs that will assist pilots. This will reduce the number of responsibilities and work-related stress. 

There isn't much we can do for the industry as onlookers but educate ourselves on the issue. In time the industry should bounce back from this shortage so you don't miss your flights!